Warning signs

Imagine coming to the edge of a dark, lifeless forest and seeing a sign that says "Probably Monsters".

A warning sign, no doubt. Likely a warning sign posted by the most cautious, perhaps delusional, and paranoid person. Equally likely, a sign posted by the most calculated, effective person. Whether ravenous beast or a very real toxic hazard, "probably monsters" is a statement that bad things are beyond this point.

Now imagine a company comes to you and wants you to invest in them. You ask how many projects they have completed thus far, as a group. They tell you they have successfully incubated one project, but failed to incubate another, and haven't completed the most recent. 

Seemingly batting 500 and waiting for the next pitch seems like a great statistic, but then you ask how the successful project performed after incubation. They reply that it failed, dying shortly after birth. They incubated and sold a project that wasn't healthy enough to make the investor a return.

You and your capital stand there, at the edge of dark forest full of dying and falling trees, and there is a sign to inform you that there is a possibility, a probability, just enough to constitute the thought, that all that death is caused by something unable to care about the well-being of you or your capital. 

Do you walk into the forest?